Facts

• ETH spot started weak, stabilized midweek, then slipped again into the weekend, finishing around 2475/2476. Weekly spot change was roughly -0.69% to -1.46%.
• Implied vol rose over the week, with DVOL increasing from 52.6 to 54.28, or about +3.21% / +2.15% week over week.
• The option-chain center of gravity stayed anchored around near spot / the 2500 axis.
• Combo flow was dominated by block_only, with recurring call spreads, put spreads, calendars/diagonals.
• 24h net Greeks flipped repeatedly during the week, but into the weekend the aggregate picture was again materially negative dealer gamma, with vega and gamma rotating across front-end and intermediate maturities.

Interpretation

The week’s dominant structure was a structured fight around the 2500 axis, with heavy flow, rising vol, and spot failing to hold above call-wall territory by the close.
This was not a clean breakout week. It was more a process of re-pricing, probing, and rebalancing around the anchor.
On the risk map, front-end risk generation stayed active throughout, but risk did not remain confined there; it also migrated into the 8–30d to expiry / 31–90d to expiry buckets, showing that positioning extended into the middle of the curve.

2. Key Transitions Through the Week

Facts

• 9/8: dealer gamma_total was deeply negative, around -3275. At the same time, 2550 attracted strong gamma/vega concentration, while 1–7d to expiry and 8–30d to expiry both saw active flow. Call wall remained 2500.
• 9/9: dealer gamma_total stayed negative, around -1678. 2600 attracted stronger gamma buildup, front-end 0DTE (expires same calendar day) / 1–7d to expiry trading remained active, and put-side defense became more visible around 2400.
• 9/10: the vol-risk regime shifted. dealer gamma_total was still negative but smaller in magnitude at about -634, while net vega expanded to around +27.8k. 2300 showed extreme vega concentration, pointing to re-pricing of forward vol risk.
• 9/11: one of the key inflection points of the week. dealer gamma_total flipped positive to about +6957, net vega turned negative, and spot recovered above 2515. 2500 was re-confirmed as the call wall, but the put wall also lifted to 2500, creating a two-sided magnet.
• 9/12: dealer gamma_total turned back negative to about -3338. However, 18SEP26, 25SEP26, and 17SEP26 all showed buy-buy style flow, with call-side accumulation at 2600/2700.
• 9/13: into the weekend, dealer gamma_total weakened further to about -3842 as spot slipped back below 2500. The most important shift was clear: 2600 became the largest positive gamma node, while 2480/2460/3000 became heavy negative gamma pressure points.

Interpretation

The real transition was not a clean trend breakout. It was a temporary gamma flip around 9/11, followed by a return to negative-gamma control into the weekend.
Vega leadership also migrated across the term structure: distributed early-week activity, then more front-end vol pricing midweek, then back to 18SEP26 / 25SEP26 call buying by the close. Risk moved around the curve, but it never escaped the 2500 band.

3. What the Week Revealed

Facts

• 2500 remained the anchor all week. Whether spot was 2437, 2476, or 2515, the same strike cluster dominated volume, Open Interest (OI) attention, gamma, and vega.
• Near-term call flow stayed active: 2550, 2600, 2700, and 2800 repeatedly showed up among daily leaders.
• 0DTE (expires same calendar day) and 1–7d to expiry activity stayed elevated, confirming persistent front-end vol and hedging demand.
• The IV surface stayed in up skew; put-side IV was lifted across the week.
• Longer-dated structure never became one-way; 25DEC26, 30OCT26, and 27NOV26 remained mixed.

Interpretation

The week did not relocate the anchor; it kept recycling positioning around 2500.
In other words, the noise was generated around the anchor, not by the anchor being broken.
Just as important, negative gamma remained the weekend base case, which makes spot more prone to acceleration and hedging feedback around 2500 rather than calm pinning.

4. Key Expiries, Strikes, and Risk Zones

Facts

• The most important maturity buckets into the weekend were 18SEP26 and 25SEP26, followed by 17SEP26.
• 18SEP26 / 25SEP26 were characterized by vega buying, gamma buying, and net theta paid.
• The strongest weekend strike concentrations were:
  • 2600: the largest positive gamma node and the strongest positive vega node;
  • 2800 / 2750 / 2700 / 2550 / 2570: persistent upside call-side support;
  • 3000: still showing negative gamma / negative vega pressure;
  • 2480 / 2460 / 2440 / 2400: the main downside negative-gamma belt.
• Both call wall and put wall ended the week at 2500, with spot about 0.98% below that level.

Interpretation

Upside

• 2600 is now the key upper magnet and the most important gamma/vega center.
• If spot reclaims 2500, the first natural tests are 2550 and 2600; beyond that, 2700 and 2800 are the extension zone.

Downside

• 2480 / 2460 / 2440 / 2400 are the critical downside pressure zones.
• If spot loses 2500 again, those levels are where hedging feedback can begin to accelerate.

Term structure

• 18SEP26 / 25SEP26 were the heaviest risk-bearing buckets into the weekend.
• Their flow profile remained tilted toward call buying and gamma buying, meaning upside risk pricing in the mid-front end is still being rebuilt.

5. Next Week Scenario Framework

Scenario 1: 2500 is reclaimed and held

Conditions:

• Spot reclaims and stabilizes above 2500;
• Positive gamma / positive vega at 2600 continues to grow;
• Front-end 0DTE (expires same calendar day) / 1–7d to expiry activity does not become disorderly.

Possible path:

• The market can probe 2550 / 2600;
• 2500 may remain a two-sided pin, but the upper side becomes a stronger attractor;
• Next week could evolve into a 2500–2600 tactical range rather than an immediate downside break.

Scenario 2: 2500 is lost and price holds below it

Conditions:

• Spot stays below 2500;
• Negative gamma pressure around 2480 / 2460 / 2440 / 2400 intensifies;
• Front-end vol re-accelerates early in the week.

Possible path:

• Spot becomes more vulnerable to a move toward 2460 / 2440 / 2400;
• Weekend negative gamma can amplify short-term volatility;
• Hedging flow may accelerate the downside move.

Scenario 3: continued two-way trade around 2500

Conditions:

• Spot keeps oscillating around 2500;
• 2600 support strengthens, but not enough to create a one-way trend;
• Intermediate maturities remain structurally mixed.

Possible path:

• 2500 stays the two-sided anchor;
• Intraday volatility remains elevated even if realized range does not explode;
• The best lens remains range, Tenor bucket rollup, and structure, not outright directional chasing.

6. Desk Takeaways

• The core theme of the week was not trend confirmation; it was high IV, negative gamma, and structured risk migration around 2500.
• Into the close, 2600 is the most important upside pricing point, while 2480 / 2460 / 2440 / 2400 form the key downside negative-gamma belt.
• 18SEP26 and 25SEP26 are the main maturities to watch; they will tell us whether risk continues to build on the upside or rotates back toward vega/gamma selling.
• The main variable for next week is not “direction is decided,” but whether spot continues to displace away from 2500. Any displacement away from that level can be amplified by the weekend negative-gamma structure.
• The alternative is equally live: if 2600 positive gamma / positive vega keeps attracting flow, ETH may establish a new 2500–2600 short-term trading band first.