Spot and volatility regime

ETH spot printed 2,628.47 today, roughly flat on the day but up about 4.1% over the week. From the monthly ATR framework, price is above the lower trigger near 2,275 and still below the upper trigger near 2,659, with about 39% of the monthly ATR range traveled. That keeps the market in upper-band test mode rather than a one-way trend regime.

On the latest daily and 4h closes, price has reclaimed and held above the EMA20, and the EMA20/50/100/200 stack is still constructive. Tail volume was extremely light into the close, so the final push looked more like a closing mark-up than a volume-backed extension.

IV term structure, skew & DVOL regime

Implied vol surface

The surface still shows a front-end-rich profile with a more elevated but smoother back-end. Near-dated ATM IV is around 25.5%, while 25JUN27 sits near 55.4%, so the term structure remains clearly upward sloped. Short-dated IV is not cheap, which tells us the market is still paying for near-term variance.

Skew-wise, puts remain rich versus ATM, but the more notable feature is the rich upside wing. The 5C wing is around 41.4%, well above ATM, while the 5P wing is about 29.0%. That is more consistent with short-dated and upside-wing repricing than a broad downside panic bid.

DVOL index

DVOL is at 50.85, up about 2.1% day over day and down about 4.1% versus a week ago. On a 1Y lens it remains low: roughly Rank 11 and Percentile 12. On a 3M lens it sits in a low-to-mid band, around Rank 35 and Percentile 38.

The read is straightforward: vol is not expensive, but it is no longer being compressed aggressively. DVOL is repairing first, with spot following at a higher anchor.

Options chain structure

The options chain kept re-centering higher, with the clearest lift in 2,600, 2,700, 2,800 and 2,900 calls. Front-week flow remains the most active bucket, but the distribution is broader than a single-strike obsession.

On open interest, 25SEP26 still carries the largest near-term inventory, while 25DEC26 remains a major long-dated pool. Today’s incremental activity was still concentrated in 25SEP26 and 30OCT26, plus selected front-week expiries, which keeps the structure week-sensitive. Around 2,600, both calls and puts remain thick, preserving the strongest local magnet. Higher strikes, especially 2,800 and 3,000, saw persistent call-side participation, confirming the upward shift in the chain’s center of gravity.

Net greeks and expiry × delta structure

The 24h net Greek picture is clearly split by Tenor bucket rollup. 30OCT26 remains the cleanest source of vega selling and gamma selling, and 25SEP26 leans the same way, especially on the short-dated call side. In contrast, 22SEP26, 25DEC26, 27NOV26 and parts of 26MAR27 skew toward vega buying and gamma buying.

By strike, 2,600 and 2,500 remain the main vega-sold / gamma-sold hubs, which means the current price area still carries the heaviest hedging pressure. 2,700, 2,800 and some of the 2,450/3,800 strikes show stronger vega and gamma buying, pointing to layered positioning rather than pure directional chasing.

Block and combo block trade flow (24h)

Block and combo prints in the 24 hours through the snapshot at 00:00 UTC were net short vega and net short gamma. In other words, the larger prints were more focused on supplying volatility than buying it. The mix remained broad: block-only still made up a meaningful share, while put spreads, call spreads and calendar/diagonal structures were all active, so this was not a pure naked vol-sell tape.

By expiry, the flow was most concentrated in 25SEP26, 30OCT26 and 25DEC26 structures. 30OCT26 showed the cleanest vol-sale / gamma-sale profile. Cross-checking with the chain and net Greeks, the prints are consistent with front-end and intermediate-Tenor bucket rollup supply, not with an outright directional upside chase.

2. What Changed vs Prior Session(s)

The key change today was that ETH spot pushed further above 2,600 and edged close to the 2,659 monthly upper trigger, but did not break through it. Relative to the prior session, price is now closer to the top of the monthly ATR band, so the higher-timeframe repair has progressed.

In the chain, yesterday’s higher-strike re-centering continued and broadened. The participation that had already emerged in 2,600 and 2,700 now spread further into 2,800 and 2,900, so the upside bid is wider, not just more concentrated in one line.

Net Greeks and block/combo flow still show that larger players are not uniformly chasing upside. There is still notable front-end vega and gamma supply. So today is best read as spot strength plus vol rebalancing, not simple risk-on expansion.

Volatility also kept repairing rather than collapsing. DVOL moved higher again, which means the front end is not being fully suppressed even as spot improves.

3. Multi-Day Context

Over the past week, ETH has been in a monthly ATR repair process: recovering from the lower end of the band, back through 2,400 and 2,500, and now reclaiming 2,600. That has been the dominant structure all week.

Earlier in the week, the chain was anchored more around 2,400–2,600. Over the last two sessions, it has clearly shifted higher toward 2,600–3,000, with 25SEP26 and 30OCT26 calls carrying more of the action. Today’s update is important because 2,600 is no longer just a bounce level; it is becoming the new center of gravity.

On vol, DVOL is still low on a historical basis, but it is no longer compressing. That keeps the weekly theme as “repair and re-anchoring,” not “confirmed trend reversal.” Today reinforced that theme.

4. Key Levels and Risk Zones

• First upside confirmation: around 2,659, the monthly upper ATR trigger.
• Upside extension zone: 2,700, 2,800, 2,900, and 3,000, with strong call activity overlapping 2,800/3,000.
• Local magnet: 2,600, where spot, chain inventory and gamma concentration all converge.
• First downside support: 2,500, where failure would materially weaken the repair structure.
• Downside risk zone: 2,400 and 2,300, where put inventory and broader Tenor bucket rollup defense become more relevant.
• Deeper support: 2,275, the monthly lower trigger; a move back below it would materially weaken the monthly repair thesis.

5. Scenario Map for Next Session

Scenario 1: Continued push toward 2,659

If spot keeps grinding higher from 2,600, 2,659 becomes the key confirmation level. In that case, watch whether short-dated IV continues to edge higher and whether 2,700/2,800/2,900 calls keep accumulating. If spot extends while DVOL rises with it, that would argue for a more genuine vol-backed breakout attempt.

Scenario 2: Range trade above 2,600

If price chops between 2,600 and 2,650, today’s structure likely remains a high-end range repair. The key tell would be whether front-end negative gamma and negative vega prints keep appearing, because that would keep suppressing short-dated expansion and reinforce the 2,600 magnet.

Scenario 3: Pullback back toward 2,500

If spot drops back below 2,500, the higher-strike re-centering can quickly turn into overhead supply and vol-selling pressure. In that case the 2,400/2,300 support inventory becomes more relevant, and 0DTE (expires same calendar day)/1–7D put activity deserves close attention.

What to monitor tomorrow

• Whether 2,600 keeps acting as the shared spot/options anchor.
• Whether 2,659 gets tested and held.
• Whether 25SEP26 and 30OCT26 continue to add calls, or start to unwind.
• Whether DVOL keeps recovering or stalls again around 50.
• Whether block/combo flow remains net short vega and gamma, or flips back toward vol buying.

6. Trader Focus

• 2,600 is again the key anchor for ETH spot and the options chain.
• Today was not a broad-based vol bull market; it was a structural repricing of front-end IV and upside wings.
• Large-ticket flow still leans toward vol and gamma selling, so the market is not uniformly chasing upside.
• DVOL remains low but is repairing, and may lead spot if the next move turns into a range expansion.
• Keep separating “spot above 2,600” from “trend confirmed” — the former is in place, the latter is still unproven.