Spot and volatility regime

ETH spot settled at 2,445.58, modestly higher on the day. Both the 4h and 1d closes landed at the same level, which tells us the short-term repair remained intact, but without strong impulse.
Price is still inside the monthly ATR band: well below the 2,659 upper trigger and above the 2,275 lower trigger. The monthly trend state stays neutral.
Looking across the recent daily bars, ETH has been oscillating around the 2,400–2,525 area. Yesterday’s dip toward 2,420 was followed by today’s recovery back above 2,445, so this is still middle-of-range repricing, not a confirmed trend leg.
Volume has been active across recent bars, but today’s final daily print is mechanically small and should not be over-read.

IV term structure, skew & DVOL regime

Implied vol surface

The ETH implied vol surface still carries a clear upward term slope. ATM IV sits around 25.6%, while the back end steps higher into the mid-50s to mid-60s across the longer tenors. Short-dated and medium-dated Tenor bucket rollup premiums remain intact, but the surface no longer has the sharper front-heavy stress feel seen before; it looks more like a high, smoother upward curve.
Across expiries, the term premium is still meaningful in 25SEP26, 2OCT26, 30OCT26 and 25DEC26, which tells us longer-dated risk is still being paid for.
Skew remains rich on both wings, with puts still carrying the more defensive tone. The 5P through 40P and 25P through 45P areas remain above ATM, while calls also hold firm on the wing, so this is not just a one-sided downside-protection market; both wings remain expensive.

DVOL index regime

DVOL is around 50.1%, down from 52.8% yesterday, so the volatility index itself continued to cool.
On a 1Y lookback, DVOL remains in a relatively low historical band, roughly the 10th percentile / rank 10 area. On a 3M lookback, it sits in the low to lower-mid band, roughly rank 31 / percentile 29.
That puts DVOL in a “still carrying defense, but no longer accelerating” regime: above quiet levels, but not in a fresh expansion phase.

Options chain structure

The options chain is still centered on the 2,500 area and the higher ladder above spot, especially 2,500, 2,700, 2,800, 3,000 and 3,500. In absolute Open Interest (OI) terms, 25DEC26 and 25SEP26 remain the heaviest anchors, so the longer-dated book has not been abandoned.
Near spot, 2,500 is the key pivot: both call and put interest are thick there and turnover was meaningful, making it the main pin zone. 2,450, 2,400 and 2,300 also stayed active, so short-dated gamma remains highly relevant.
Higher up, 2,700, 2,800, 3,000 and 3,500 continue to carry the main call-side concentration, with 3,000 showing the heaviest supply pressure. If spot keeps pushing higher, that 3,000 area will remain the most important overhead wall.
By Tenor bucket rollup, 0DTE (expires same calendar day) and 1–7D still drive the largest turnover, but 31–90D and 90D+ Open Interest (OI) remain deep, which argues for active Tenor bucket rollup rotation rather than a purely short-dated speculative tape.

Net greeks and expiry × delta structure

Today’s net Greeks profile was mixed.
By expiry, 27NOV26, 25DEC26 and 2OCT26 leaned toward vega selling and gamma selling, while 30OCT26, 26MAR27 and 21SEP26 leaned toward vega buying and gamma buying. That tells us the curve was not moving in one direction; desks were reallocating risk across tenors.
By strike, 3,000 was still the clearest net vega- and gamma-sold zone, while 2,700, 2,800 and 3,500 kept absorbing buy-side flow. The 2,450–2,600 region remained two-way and highly active, which is exactly where inventory management matters most.
This looked more like a redistribution of yesterday’s more one-sided buying, rather than fresh directional conviction.

Block and combo block trade flow (24h)

Block and combo prints in the 24 hours through the report snapshot at 00:00 UTC on Sep 18, 2026 (rolling window, not the calendar report day) were still dominated by block_only, but the mix was broad: put spreads, call spreads, calendars, straddles, strangles and condors all showed up.
Across the rolling window, net delta was about +687, net gamma about +1,420, while net vega was about -1,638. That broadly lines up with some of the sell-vega structure seen in the chain, though it is not a perfect one-to-one match.
Most of the action sat in the 30–90D and 90D+ buckets, especially around 26MAR27, 30OCT26, 27NOV26 and 25DEC26. The short end remained point-trade and hedge-heavy.
In other words, desks were not making a single directional bet; they were splitting risk across tenors around 2,440–2,500, with one leg pressing front-end gamma and another shifting vega into the middle/back end.

2. What Changed vs Prior Session(s)

The key changes versus yesterday were threefold.
First, spot recovered from the 2,420 area back to 2,445.6. That extends the repair, but it does not change the larger monthly range-digestion framework. Yesterday looked more like the start of a repair; today looks more like confirmation of the middle of the band.
Second, DVOL slipped from 52.8% to 50.1%, so the vol repair did not keep expanding; it cooled. The surface and skew, however, did not flatten decisively, so the defensive premium remains.
Third, block/combo flow shifted from a cleaner positive-vega / positive-delta tone to a more mixed, slightly negative-vega / negative-delta profile. That suggests desks are re-slicing Tenor bucket rollup and direction rather than adding to the same bias.

On the chain, yesterday’s focus was more squarely on short-dated repair. Today, the return of 31–90D and 90D+ participation, especially in the 2,700/2,800/3,000/3,500 zones, shows the mid-to-back end is still being actively maintained.

3. Multi-Day Context

The weekly theme has not changed: ETH remains in monthly ATR digestion, with price repeatedly wrestling around the 2,500 area while the 2,275 and 2,659 monthly boundaries remain untouched.
Over the past week, ETH traded down to 2,437 on 9/10, repaired back above 2,500 during 9/11–9/14, slipped back toward 2,400 on 9/15, recovered to about 2,420 on 9/16, and now sits around 2,445.6. That is classic middle-of-range chop, not a trend escape.
On the options side, the front end has stayed central, but the 2,500–3,000 zone above spot keeps attracting substantial Open Interest (OI), and 3,000+ call supply continues to cap upside follow-through. Any push higher will still run into that wall.
Vol-wise, the prior repair has now turned into digestion. Today’s DVOL pullback weakens the “vol expanding” narrative, while preserving the broader “range digestion + elevated skew + front-end dominance” theme.

4. Key Levels and Risk Zones

• Spot pivot: 2,440–2,450, where today’s close and much of the recent tape have clustered.
• Near-term anchor: 2,500. This remains the key pin zone with thick Open Interest (OI) and strong turnover.
• Overhead supply: 2,700 / 2,800 / 3,000 / 3,500, with 3,000 still the heaviest call supply node.
• Near-spot defense: 2,450 / 2,400 / 2,300, with 2,450 and 2,400 especially sensitive to two-way Greeks.
• Monthly boundaries: the 2,275 lower trigger and 2,659 upper trigger remain untouched.

5. Scenario Map for Next Session

Scenario 1: Continued oscillation around 2,440–2,500

If spot keeps trading in this band, pinning and short-gamma management will likely remain the dominant setup. Watch whether Open Interest (OI) keeps concentrating at 2,450 and 2,500, and whether 0DTE (expires same calendar day)/1–7D activity expands further.
Monitoring points:

• Whether 2,450 and 2,500 continue to accumulate both call and put Open Interest (OI);
• Whether short-dated gamma between 2,400 and 2,500 remains the main driver;
• Whether DVOL stays rangebound near 50%.

Scenario 2: Push toward 2,500–2,700 and test overhead supply

If spot can hold above 2,500, the 2,700/2,800 area should be tested next, with 3,000 remaining the key supply wall.
Monitoring points:

• Whether call Open Interest (OI) and sell flow at 2,700 and 2,800 keep building;
• Whether 30OCT26 / 27NOV26 / 25DEC26 continue to absorb sold vega;
• Whether skew starts to lift on the call side as spot advances.

Scenario 3: Slip back toward 2,400 / 2,275

If spot loses 2,400 and heads lower, the near-spot put wall and downside skew will again take over.
Monitoring points:

• Whether put Open Interest (OI) and 0DTE (expires same calendar day) / 1–7D flow at 2,400, 2,300 and 2,200 expand;
• Whether DVOL begins rising again from the 50% area;
• Whether the short end steepens again, signaling renewed defense demand.

6. Trader Focus

• Today was a range-rebalancing day, not a trend day.
• 2,500 remains the key near-spot anchor in ETH options.
• 3,000+ supply is still thick, so any upside push must work through that wall.
• DVOL eased, but the surface and skew still argue that the defensive premium has not been removed.
• Block/combo flow became more mixed, which suggests desks are splitting risk across Tenor bucket rollup and direction rather than leaning one way.