Spot and volatility regime

• Spot traded around 2,420 today, down from the 2,515 area yesterday, pulling the pivot back toward 2,400.
• The monthly ATR framework remains intact: price is still between the 2,275 lower trigger and the 2,659 upper trigger, with the monthly trend still neutral. Today’s range usage sits at roughly 38.6% of ATR.
• On the 1D view, price slipped back under the short EMAs and ended near 2,420; volume did not extend yesterday’s push, so this looks more like a retracement than trend acceleration.
• DVOL closed at 52.82, lower than yesterday. Vol is active but not in an extreme regime.

IV term structure, skew & DVOL regime

Implied vol surface

• The term structure is still upward-sloping: short-dated ATM IV is around 39.7%, while 25SEP26, 30OCT26, 25DEC26 and longer tenors remain above 50% ATM IV.
• So the curve has not flattened materially. Front-end IV cooled, but the back end remains sticky.
• Across expiries, wing vols are still well above ATM, with the 19SEP26 through 26MAR27 area retaining a meaningful premium on both put and call wings.

DVOL index

• DVOL is about 52.8%, down on the day, still sitting in the lower-middle to middle part of its 1Y and 3M distributions.
• The 1Y IV Rank / IV Percentile remains relatively low, so vol is not expensive in a longer-horizon sense. The 3M regime is closer to neutral.
• Versus yesterday, DVOL cooled rather than extended, consistent with a post-repair consolidation rather than a fresh vol expansion.

Options chain structure

• 0DTE (expires same calendar day) and 1–7D continue to dominate turnover and positioning changes, especially in 17SEP26, 18SEP26 and 19SEP26.
• 25SEP26 remains the largest Open Interest (OI) bucket in the chain, keeping the 8–30D structure structurally heavy.
• With spot back near 2,420, the 2,400 / 2,300 / 2,500 zone has re-emerged as the near-field battleground, even as higher strikes remain well occupied.
• This is still a two-layer structure: active front-end turnover on top of a dense medium-dated base.

Net greeks and expiry × delta structure

• In the rolling 24h window, the market posted negative net delta, negative net vega, and negative net gamma overall. That points to vol/gamma supply, not protection demand.
• 17SEP26, 27NOV26 and 25DEC26 all leaned toward vega selling and gamma selling. The front end was the most active, but also the clearest source of supply.
• 19SEP26 and 18SEP26 showed pockets of vega/gamma buying in puts, so the tape was not one-way; however, those pockets did not override the broader supply picture.
• Strike-level positioning is clearly differentiated around 2,400, 2,300, 2,500, 3,000 and 2,380. There is still some front-end buying around 2,400, but the better read is still selling pressure in 25SEP26 and 25DEC26.
• The setup reads as “sell vol after the retracement” rather than “chase the repair higher.”

Block and combo block trade flow (24h)

• Block and combo prints in the 24 hours through the report snapshot at 00:00 UTC on Sep 17 (rolling window, not the calendar report day).
• The aggregate profile leaned toward vega selling and delta selling, with dealer gamma total negative; larger prints were supplying volatility to the market.
• The structure mix is still led by block-only, but combo flow was active in put spreads, call spreads, calendars/diagonals and a few condors, showing a preference for structured views over outright direction.
• Most of the notable flow clustered in front-end contracts around 17SEP26, with additional activity in 19SEP26 puts and 25SEP26 / 26MAR27 call spreads. That matches the chain’s front-end intensity and medium-dated layering.
• There were isolated buy-vega / buy-gamma pockets, especially in some 19SEP26 put structures and parts of 26MAR27, but not enough to overturn the broader vol-supply tone.

2. What Changed vs Prior Session(s)

• Spot rolled lower from roughly 2,515 yesterday to around 2,420 today, back below 2,500 but still far above the 2,275 monthly lower trigger. This is a retracement, not trend confirmation.
• Yesterday was more of a repair session; today shifted into “reprice after repair,” and volume did not expand further.
• The chain’s center of gravity shifted back from the 2,600+ repair narrative to the 2,400 area. The 2,400 / 2,300 zone is now more important.
• Net greeks flipped from more delta-/vega-positive into net delta/vega/gamma selling. Vol sellers regained control over the rolling 24h window.
• DVOL eased rather than expanded, so vol did not reprice higher again. But skew stayed rich, meaning downside protection remains expensive.
• Block/combo flow also rotated from repair-style vol buying into more deliberate vol supply and structured selling.

3. Multi-Day Context

• Over the past week ETH has remained inside the monthly ATR digestion band: the 2,659 upper trigger has not been challenged, and the 2,275 lower trigger has not been broken.
• From Sep 11–14, the story was spot repair back toward 2,500, with the chain re-centering higher and the market rebalancing within the range.
• Starting Sep 15, spot leaned back toward 2,400 and front-end vol / short-dated skew repaired.
• Today extends that sequence: spot did not accelerate lower, but it also failed to hold above 2,500, pulling risk back toward 2,400.
• So today reinforced the “range internal repricing” theme, not a higher-timeframe breakout.
• Across the week, 0DTE (expires same calendar day) and 1–7D continued to dominate short-horizon pricing, while 25SEP26 remained the main Open Interest (OI) anchor, confirming that positioning is being redistributed rather than unwound.

4. Key Levels and Risk Zones

• 2,420: current spot pivot and the first level to watch.
• 2,400: near-term put wall and one of the key magnetic levels. If it gives way repeatedly, front-end skew can reprice higher quickly.
• 2,275: monthly lower trigger, the level that matters for higher-timeframe downside confirmation.
• 2,500: yesterday’s repair center; if reclaimed, today’s vol selling is more likely to be read as supply into a rebound.
• 2,659: upper monthly trigger, still untested.
• The 2,500 call wall and 2,400 put wall keep spot inside a well-defined options field.

5. Scenario Map for Next Session

Scenario 1: Hold above 2,420, revisit 2,500

• If spot stabilizes above 2,400 and pushes back toward 2,500, today’s gamma/vega selling will look more like vol supply into a rebound.
• In that path, 2,500 becomes the first overhead test again, with 2,600+ recovery narratives only re-emerging if follow-through improves.

Scenario 2: Lose 2,400 and test 2,275

• If 2,400 fails again, front-end IV and skew can reprice higher quickly, and 0DTE (expires same calendar day)/1–7D flow can amplify realized moves.
• 2,300 becomes the next nearby battleground, while 2,275 is the more important monthly downside risk zone.

Scenario 3: Continued range churn

• If ETH keeps chopping between 2,400 and 2,500 while DVOL hovers near 50%, the market is still digesting risk inside the range.
• In that case, front-end spreads, calendars/diagonals and put spreads remain the dominant expression tools.

What to monitor next

• Whether 2,400 holds or gives way.
• Whether 25SEP26 remains the primary Open Interest (OI) anchor, especially around 2,400 / 2,500 / 2,600.
• Whether 0DTE (expires same calendar day) and 1–7D continue to dominate turnover.
• Whether DVOL keeps easing from the 52% area or re-bids if 2,400 breaks.
• Whether front-end skew steepens again, especially on the put wing.

6. Trader Focus

• Today was not a trend-break session; it was a range repricing session.
• Front-end vol is still the main battlefield, with 0DTE (expires same calendar day) / 1–7D more important than distant nominal Open Interest (OI).
• 25SEP26 remains the core structural anchor, and the 2,400–2,500 area is the key zone to monitor for positioning migration.
• Block/combo flow clearly showed vol supply returning, but downside protection has not disappeared. The right question is whether vol selling can persist.
• The next major question is simple: can 2,400 hold?

Watchpoints

• Spot is back near 2,400, but still inside the monthly range. That is a range swing, not a confirmed regime shift.
• The surface shows front-end cooling and still-rich wings; DVOL eased but did not break.
• Block/combo flow and net greeks both support the “sell vol after the bounce” read.
• If 2,400 fails again, front-end skew and protection demand can reprice quickly. If 2,500 is reclaimed, today’s seller flow will look more like supply into a rebound.